The Road to November
The numbers and stories brokers should monitor during the 2026 midterm elections.
With the 2026 midterm elections quickly approaching, control of Congress is up for grabs.
Narrow margins in the House and Senate mean a handful of competitive races could determine which party holds power and sets the agenda for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. Here’s what The Council is watching as the road to Nov. 3 enters its final stretch.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and a razor-thin 218-member House majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the upper chamber and a net gain of three seats in the House.
The Cook Political Report lists six Senate toss-ups: Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. The map is challenging for Republicans, who must defend 22 of the 35 seats on the ballot this cycle, with a number of competitive races, while also facing the historical tendency of the president’s party to lose seats in midterm elections. Many pollsters predict a split Congress, with Democrats taking the House while Republicans narrowly retain the Senate.
If Democrats win the House, current Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) would face a challenge similar to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.): governing with an exceptionally thin majority means nearly every vote is a high-stakes negotiation. A Democratic majority would also likely pursue aggressive oversight of the Trump administration along with increased scrutiny of companies and industries tied to its policy agenda. That could include the insurance industry.
Two Trends to Track
Two primary trends are reshaping the political landscape and could have policy implications in the next Congress.
On the left, the Democratic Party’s progressive wing is gaining ground. Candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, along with other progressives, have succeeded in primary elections in New York, Florida, Colorado, and Michigan. The results underscore a long-running debate over the party’s direction. They could also strengthen support within the Democratic caucus for Medicare for All and other proposals that expand the federal government’s role in health coverage.
On the right, Trump continues to play an influential role in shaping Republican primary contests, at times backing challengers to incumbent lawmakers. That influence was evident in the May defeat of Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee Chairman Bill Cassidy (R-La.). Cassidy finished third in Louisiana’s Republican primary and will leave the Senate in January, opening potential competition for the gavel at a committee with broad jurisdiction over federal health policy.
Who Gets the Gavel?
Committee leadership will be an important post-election story to watch. Eleven senators are not seeking reelection: four Democrats and seven Republicans.
Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) have each expressed interest in chairing the Senate HELP Committee. If Democrats win the Senate, panel Ranking Member Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) would likely become chair. That would represent a significant ideological shift for the committee and could bring greater scrutiny of insurers, employer-sponsored coverage, and other private-sector healthcare practices.
A Democratic majority would…likely pursue aggressive oversight of the Trump administration along with increased scrutiny of companies and industries tied to its policy agenda. That could include the insurance industry.
The Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over the employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) tax exclusion, premium tax credits, Medicare, and health savings accounts, is currently led by Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), while Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) would be positioned to reclaim the gavel under Democratic control. In the House, Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) could be replaced by panel Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-Mass.). For The Council, Finance and Ways and Means will be particularly important, as any effort to change or cap the ESI tax exclusion would run through these committees.
ESI Under Pressure
With the national debt recently crossing $40 trillion, the search for savings in Washington is becoming more intense. That puts the employer-sponsored insurance tax exclusion under renewed scrutiny. The exclusion is estimated to reduce federal revenues by more than $5 trillion over the coming 10 years, which makes it an attractive target for lawmakers searching for significant offsets. However, the exclusion is also a cornerstone of the employer-sponsored insurance system, helping employers provide health coverage to 180 million Americans.
Proposals to cap the exclusion are not new and have historically failed. One of The Council’s most significant legislative victories in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was preserving the exclusion. With fiscal pressures growing, though, protecting ESI will remain an important priority in the next Congress.
The Road Ahead
Predictions are only predictions, and pollsters have been wrong before. After Election Day, The Council’s Government Affairs team will look back at what we got right, what surprised us, and what the results mean for our members. Whatever the outcome, we will remain a strong voice for the brokerage industry in Washington, working with policymakers on both sides of the aisle to advance The Council’s priorities.
