Q4 2025 Showed Softest Market Conditions Since 2017
With few exceptions, account and line of business premium changes slowed noticeably or fell.
Property and casualty premiums rose by an average of just 0.2% in Q4 2025, according to results from The Council's latest P/C Market Survey.
Large account premiums dropped by an average of 2.1% in the quarter, the first decrease for that account size recorded since 2017. They were down approximately 230% from the 1.6% increase measured for that account size in the previous quarter. Medium account premiums did not change, with respondents reporting an average change of 0.0%. Small account premiums rose by 2.8%.
Nine lines of business showed premium decreases in Q4 2025, more than half of the lines tracked by the survey. Premiums in five of those lines fell by more than 1%: cyber (3.3% decrease), directors and officers (3.8%), employment practices (2.6%), terrorism (1.4%), and workers compensation (2.4%). Overall, with the exception of commercial auto and umbrella, all lines of business recorded increases lower than or flat to their Q3 2025 increases.
Commercial auto had the highest premium increase among all lines, at an average of 6.6%. This marked nearly 15 years of sustained quarterly increases for the line. Respondents and industry sources blamed social inflation and nuclear verdicts for high claim frequency and severity in Q4 2025, a toxic combination for any line of business. These claims also impacted umbrella, the only other line that had an average premium increase of over 2% (at 4.7% on average).
Respondents and industry sources attributed D&O decreases to the same causes as in previous quarters: an abundance of capacity leading to an abundance of competition. New, however, was the loss ratio result for 2024: “one of the best results seen in over a decade,” according to AM Best. This likely also contributed to additional premium relief in 2025.
